Sports sharps, tracked and graded. The Index follows the ones who win.

A stock-market index holds a basket chosen by fixed rules, so no single company decides how it does. The Index applies that idea to sports picks: instead of following one sharp, it holds every sharp who clears fixed bars, sized to each sharp’s own stake.

The intention is to make following picks less random than following whoever posted last. Whether a basket does that is what the Index is testing, not something anyone knows yet. Sports event contracts are risky, a basket of them still is, and it can lose money.

Yes. Realize trades the Index with its own money, on its own Kalshi account, at $100 a unit. It is a live test: every result on this site comes from that account, and every position is posted on Kalshi as @realize.tax with recaps on X.

We wrote up what that test has shown so far, including what can go wrong.

Every morning the Index reads the straight-picks board and seats every sharp over 30% in the last 30 days on the picks that had a Kalshi contract, with at least 12 of those picks, and above 0% across their whole history.

Nobody chooses by hand, and the rule never looks at how a sharp has done inside the Index. Seats are read again each morning, so a sharp who drops below any bar is not copied that day.

It posts the loss on Kalshi as @realize.tax like any other result, with a recap on X, and carries on under the rule in force that day. A loss is never taken out of the results. When the seat rule or the unit changes, the change is dated under “Will the rules change?”, and the positions bought before it stay in the record.

In the seven days through Oct 22, 2026, the Index went 47–37, −$360.69. That is on the home page too.

A tool for building an index of your own from the data we track. You choose the rules: which sharps or filters, which sports, the results that qualify, your sizing and your limits. The Index is ours, one set of those rules, traded with our own money and shown as an example, not a recommendation.

It isn’t open yet. Early access opens in the Discord first.

You pick a monthly plan from $10 to $1,000, whatever fits you. It pays for the software, not for any result.

It will run on your own Kalshi account, through an API key you create on Kalshi. Realize never holds or moves your money.

Every page here, the Index’s results included, is open to read without one.

The Index trades event contracts on Kalshi, not sportsbook bets, and the two can be reported differently. Of the people we’ve seen file Kalshi trades, the most common ways are as capital gains, under Section 1256 with its 60/40 split between long- and short-term rates, or as gambling income. There is no IRS guidance yet on which applies to event contracts.

realize.tax, from the same team, rebuilds a year trade by trade and prices it each of those ways.