The Index buys the straight picks of the sharps who clear its written bars on Kalshi, in public, on Realize’s own account. Sharps are sports bettors on X whose public picks are read by software, graded against official game data and ranked. A stake is what the post showed, as read by a machine; a post that states no stake is counted at 1 unit, and a pick that could not be read in full or graded is shown as not counted.
What are the biggest active markets?
The markets the tracked sharps currently have the most money on, ranked by units staked and limited to games that have not finished. The percentage beside each side is the share of that tracked stake, not a probability that the side wins.
How are the winnings on this board taxed?
Gambling winnings are taxable income, and they do not net against losses. Losses come back only as an itemized deduction, capped at total winnings and, from 2026, limited to 90% of the losses. So a bettor who won and lost the same amount can still owe tax, because a tenth of the losses is no longer deductible.
How are prediction market contracts taxed?
There is more than one way to report them, and no IRS guidance or court ruling on event contracts specifically. Of the people we have seen file, the most common ways are as gambling income and losses, as capital gains and losses, and under Section 1256, which nets gains against losses and splits the result 60/40 between long and short term. Each way has its own mechanics, so people compare them with a tax professional before they file.
Ranked by return on straight picks over 30 days. A sharp gets a seat when that is over 30% and their whole history is above 0%, on 12 or more graded Kalshi picks and with graded picks on 7 or more days.
The Index trades on Kalshi · Day 58
The top of this board gets copied on Kalshi, in public.
Every morning the Index reads this board and seats every sharp who is up over 30% in the last 30 days and in profit across their whole history, then buys their straight picks on Kalshi. Realize trades it with its own money, on its own account, and posts every result.
Recorded from Aug 27. Net units divide each position’s net by the unit in force when it was bought: $1 from Aug 31, $10 from Sep 13, $25 from Sep 30, $100 from Oct 12. Positions before the first unit were one contract each and count in dollars only.
Net since Aug 27−$306.16
Sep 18Return on stake, runningToday −1.0%
426 positions, settled through Oct 23, at $100 a unit.
How a seat is earned, by fixed rules that are the same for every sharp.
Post on X, and the board grades it.
Every pick a sharp posts is read, matched to a game and graded against the final score. Only certified straight picks count toward a seat.
Clear every bar.
Over 30% return on straight picks that had a Kalshi contract in the last 30 days, and above 0% across the whole history, on 12 or more graded Kalshi picks and with graded picks on 7 or more days. A hot month alone is not enough.
The Index copies the next one.
It buys each new straight pick on Kalshi, sized to that sharp’s own stake at $100 a unit. Parlays never. Every buy and result is posted.
See where you rank.
Type your Kalshi username and see where you land beside the ranked sharps and the Index seats.