How the trades are made.

A lot of people pay for sports picks or follow them for free, and almost nobody checks whether following them works. Realize grades every pick against the final score. The Index takes the next step: it follows the sharps who grade well, with real money, and shows what happens.

It runs in public. The result so far is the number at the top of the home page, whichever way it points.

A stock-market index holds a basket chosen by fixed rules, so no single company decides how it does. The Index applies that idea to sports picks: instead of following one sharp, it holds every sharp who clears fixed bars, sized to each sharp’s own stake.

The intention is to make following picks less random than following whoever posted last. Whether a basket does that is what the Index is testing, not something anyone knows yet. Sports event contracts are risky, a basket of them still is, and it can lose money.

Yes. Realize trades the Index with its own money, on its own Kalshi account, at $100 a unit. It is a live test: every result on this site comes from that account, and every position is posted on Kalshi as @realize.tax with recaps on X.

We wrote up what that test has shown so far, including what can go wrong.

Yes, and it has. Since the first position on Aug 27, 2026, the seat rule or the unit has changed on 8 dates, so the results span 9 versions of the rule. Every change is listed here with its date, and every position from every version stays in the results.

On August 31, 2026 the Index stopped copying the top three sharps on the straights board at one contract a position. It began seating every sharp over 10% on straight picks in the last 30 days, on at least 5 graded picks, and sizing each position to the sharp’s own stake at $1 a unit.

On September 5, 2026 the 30-day return began to be read on the picks the Index can buy on Kalshi, instead of on every straight pick.

On September 13, 2026 the 30-day bar went from 10% to 20%, a seat began to need a return above 0% across the whole record on at least 10 graded picks, and the unit went from $1 to $10.

On September 26, 2026 the Index began buying every single pick with a Kalshi contract, props and team totals included, and a sharp could qualify on either those picks or on game lines alone. The same day both bars began to apply to every graded straight pick as well, so a sharp losing overall is never seated.

On September 30, 2026 the unit went from $10 to $25.

On October 12, 2026 the unit went from $25 to $100.

On October 15, 2026 the 30-day bar went from 20% to 30%, anyone with 5 or more certified parlays now has to be in profit on them, and a sharp needs certified picks on at least 14 different days before being seated. The same day, anyone posting more than 4 straight picks a day on average over the last 30 days stopped being seated, and the seats that top the Index up to 20 members began to need over 10% in the last 30 days rather than any profit.

On October 18, 2026 the bars moved to the picks that had a Kalshi contract, because the Index can only buy what Kalshi lists. A sharp also needs at least 12 such picks, still in profit with their single best win removed. The posting-days bar went from 14 to 7, and the volume bar now reads a sharp’s typical posting day (the median, at most 10 graded straights) instead of a 30-day average. When two seated sharps take opposite sides of one Kalshi contract, the Index now holds only the net position, and a sharp who posts the same contract twice still buys it once.

Today a seat needs over 30% in the last 30 days on the picks that had a Kalshi contract, with at least 12 of those picks, and above 0% across their whole history.

It posts the loss on Kalshi as @realize.tax like any other result, with a recap on X, and carries on under the rule in force that day. A loss is never taken out of the results. When the seat rule or the unit changes, the change is dated under “Will the rules change?”, and the positions bought before it stay in the record.

A tool for building an index of your own from the data we track. You choose the rules: which sharps or filters, which sports, the results that qualify, your sizing and your limits. The Index is ours, one set of those rules, traded with our own money and shown as an example, not a recommendation.

It isn’t open yet. Early access opens in the Discord first.

You pick a monthly plan from $10 to $1,000, whatever fits you. It pays for the software, not for any result.

It will run on your own Kalshi account, through an API key you create on Kalshi. Realize never holds or moves your money.

Every page here, the Index’s results included, is open to read without one.

The Index trades event contracts on Kalshi, not sportsbook bets, and the two can be reported differently. Of the people we’ve seen file Kalshi trades, the most common ways are as capital gains, under Section 1256 with its 60/40 split between long- and short-term rates, or as gambling income. There is no IRS guidance yet on which applies to event contracts.

realize.tax, from the same team, rebuilds a year trade by trade and prices it each of those ways.