We trade the Index with our own money. Here is what 58 days show.

Thousands of people follow sports sharps, and almost nobody checks whether following them works. Realize grades every pick from the sharps it tracks against the final score. The Index is the next step: a fixed rule that seats the sharps who grade well and buys their picks on Kalshi. To find out what that does, we run it with real money and show the result.

Why our own account comes first

The Index trades on Realize’s account, with Realize’s money. If the rule has a flaw, a bug or a bad stretch, it shows up there, in public, and it costs us.

It also keeps us honest. A number on a page is easy to tune; a balance on Kalshi is not. Every figure in this article and on the home page comes from that one account.

How the test runs

The account runs the rule as written that morning, with no extra discretion. Every morning it reads the board and seats each sharp over 30% in the last 30 days and above 0% across their whole history, on picks Kalshi listed. When a seated sharp posts a pick that matches a Kalshi contract, the Index buys it at the sharp’s own stake, at $100 a unit and never more than 5 units on one position.

Nobody picks sharps by hand, and the rule never looks at how a sharp has done inside the Index. The full rule, with every cap, is on the method page.

What we have seen so far

These figures span every version of the rule: the seat rule or the unit has changed on 8 dates since Aug 27, 2026, most recently on Oct 18, 2026, so the results span 9 versions of the rule, and each change is listed with its date on the method page. Since that latest change the Index has gone 34–33 and is down $1,576 over 67 positions.

Four things stand out after 58 days.

• It has been below zero. The running net’s low was −$801.18, on Oct 14, day 49. A test that stopped there would have reported a loss.
• The stakes grew. In the first week that bought anything, the average position was $1.56; in the latest it was $193.43. The early days count for little in the dollar total, so the return on stake is the fairer figure, and the recent days carry most of the weight.
• A few sharps carry a lot of it. The top sharp’s copied picks (Lil Rays Plays) are up $677.29; the bottom one’s (Peter V) are down $517.15. A basket smooths that, but it does not remove it.
• Losing days are normal. Over the last seven days the Index went 47–37 and finished down $360.69, with 3 of those days in the red.

58 days is a short sample. These figures describe what happened, not what the next 58 days will do.

What can go wrong

• Sharps cool off. A seat is earned on the last 30 days. A sharp can clear every bar and then lose the next ten picks.
• The price moves. Kalshi’s price can move between the minute a sharp posts and the minute the Index buys. A pick whose price has moved too far is skipped, and the rest are bought at a worse price than the sharp got.
• The balance runs short. On a busy day the Index can place many units at once. If an account can’t cover a position, that position is skipped, so a smaller balance can miss the day’s winners.
• Fees add up. Every figure here is after Kalshi fees, and fees take a bigger share of small positions.
• The rule itself could be wrong. The idea that a basket of strong recent sharps makes money is what is being tested. If it doesn’t, the results will show it.

Why every position is public

Every position the Index takes is posted on Kalshi as @realize.tax the moment it is bought, with the stake and the price paid, and recapped on X. Losses are posted the same way as wins.

Publishing everything means nobody has to trust a summary, this one included. Anyone can open a position on Kalshi, check the price, and see how it settled.

What these figures can’t tell you

Nothing here says the Index will make money for anyone. Sports event contracts are risky, a basket of them still is, and it can lose money. A short run of good days is the easiest thing in this business to mistake for skill, ours included.

When build your own index opens, you set your own rules. The Index is one set of them, and it trades our own money.